Wednesday, January 28, 2009
DJI : OK, 3WS printed, after 2 long bottom tail hammer red bars, 1st time in 9 trading days closed above S4, HH/HL day, a very nice round bottom printed, but, close is below MBB (8461), this number could serve as Day high for tomorrow, KD up too sharp, MACD about to give out a buy signal, not yet to happen.
Many IR on charts today
DIA, SPY and many stocks... so, this morning...... no action is action... holding long position only here... Past 8 range bounding day was your accumulation zone...
Tuesday, January 27, 2009
What could happen tomorrow...
DJI : This is Day 8 of range bounding action at 7900-8300 level, on chart, a nice looking round base is in the forming, will need a few more days, closed above S3, this is good, but S4 is still the resistance, and don't count on too much on finance sectors tomorrow, all DJI finance names (AXP, BAC, C, JPM) added together, including GE and GM, they are not as big as CVX, XOM, or IBM... so, their impact to DJI index is limited, this is actually very good to the long term, because the problems in finance sector won't go away for a while (in next 12-24 monthes), you don't want to see DJI's future move depends on those troublesome finance companies.
For tomorrow, if gap up, then we might see day high in the morning, SPY and DIA could see a black daily candle, and DJI might just give us another small green bar to complete 3WS pattern...
I think we are getting a measured move pattern from here to UBB, and this move will be very slow.
Only buy on dip, never chase on break out.
For tomorrow, if gap up, then we might see day high in the morning, SPY and DIA could see a black daily candle, and DJI might just give us another small green bar to complete 3WS pattern...
I think we are getting a measured move pattern from here to UBB, and this move will be very slow.
Only buy on dip, never chase on break out.
Monday, January 26, 2009
Reminder on 2X & 3X ETFs
You need to be very careful on holding those for longer than 3 days... with VIX keep drifting lower, all those 2x/3x ETFs will be cut into half no matter for long or for short.
Only buy cheap stocks as accumulation... you can only DT 2x/3x ETFs here, i think VIX is heading back to 20-30 normal range.
Only buy cheap stocks as accumulation... you can only DT 2x/3x ETFs here, i think VIX is heading back to 20-30 normal range.
Sunday, January 25, 2009
DJI Range bounding here
DJI : 6 days range bounding near 8100+/- 200 pts zone, the pattern is more and more close to an Eva bottom pattern, and an Eva bottom could last more than 10 trading days... so, patience, KD has buy signal, Friday is another long bottom tail candle, this means strong support zone touched.
Friday, January 23, 2009
DJI, this is Day 3.
DJI daily: chart wise, DJI needs to take out Tuesday high, today, this is Day 3... I still remember this...
The future $100/$200/$300 stocks
Today's <$10 stocks will be $100+ in 1-2 years
Today's <$20 stocks will be $200+ in 1-2 years
Today's <$40 stocks will be $300+ in 1-2 years
Some belongs old bull stocks come back, old 100-300 stock dropped to $10-40 range and come back, this part is only a few.
Most new $100-300 stocks will come from those now trading at $5-30 price range stocks, and they never traded above $30 before...
hehe... make your guess...
Today's <$20 stocks will be $200+ in 1-2 years
Today's <$40 stocks will be $300+ in 1-2 years
Some belongs old bull stocks come back, old 100-300 stock dropped to $10-40 range and come back, this part is only a few.
Most new $100-300 stocks will come from those now trading at $5-30 price range stocks, and they never traded above $30 before...
hehe... make your guess...
Thursday, January 22, 2009
DJI today closed at 8122, -105
DJI daily chart update
This is an insider hammer day, closing point is above fibo .500 of yesterday's bar, below S3, bullish and bearish... so, neutral.
Today is Day 3 of that Tuesday dive... it need to take out the Tuesday high at least intraday tomm.
I think DJI is trying to forging out a bottom zone here, although the chance to see new Lower low is possible, but what is happening here near 7936 is like an EVA bottom action, while the low at 7774 is a single day action, which is an Adam bottom.
This is an insider hammer day, closing point is above fibo .500 of yesterday's bar, below S3, bullish and bearish... so, neutral.
Today is Day 3 of that Tuesday dive... it need to take out the Tuesday high at least intraday tomm.
I think DJI is trying to forging out a bottom zone here, although the chance to see new Lower low is possible, but what is happening here near 7936 is like an EVA bottom action, while the low at 7774 is a single day action, which is an Adam bottom.
Market is in a range bound mode now
Market will range bound for a while here... 7500 is hard to penetrate, and 8500 is hard to pass... so, up 1 day, down next... right now it is in a zone of 8100 +/-200 points
And you have to play against your own feeling these days if you want to DT, that means you have to take long positions when you really feel sky is falling... and you have to close long and flip into short when you feel better... that means, when you see something 15-20% in red, you buy in, and when it is 15-20% in green, you sell/short... and those opportunity windows are closing out real fast... if you can't handle this...
You accumulate on every new low and stop DT. Index will be hard to play, and opportunity is on individually stocks...
And you have to play against your own feeling these days if you want to DT, that means you have to take long positions when you really feel sky is falling... and you have to close long and flip into short when you feel better... that means, when you see something 15-20% in red, you buy in, and when it is 15-20% in green, you sell/short... and those opportunity windows are closing out real fast... if you can't handle this...
You accumulate on every new low and stop DT. Index will be hard to play, and opportunity is on individually stocks...
Wednesday, January 21, 2009
$SSEC 3rd day stands above the resistance line
Shanghai A share closed last night with -9.09 pts, a red hollow candle, this is the 3rd day stands above the previous resistance line at R1, so, the break out of R1 is confirmed here as a valid break out, UBB is at 2001 now, some resistance here, and next resistance still at previous high: 2100.
2008-01-21 Possible a reversal day
DJI daily bar: watch for a BuE bar... yes I mean +332 or more, close above S4... if this happens, then y'day was a bear trap.
Tuesday, January 20, 2009
2009-01-20 DJI closed today -332 pts
DJI Daily chart
This is an ugly BeE daily bar, a failure at S4, and closed below S3, the only good part is thin volume, not match to the size of the move today, and chart pattern wise, the possible H&S bottom setup still valid, and S1 still holding.
AH IBM earning lifted IBM into green zone, this is the most expensive stock in DJI 30 now, overweight to the index, so, the positive move in IBM will give DJI a gap up in the morning, and lift the DJI back above S3, the line S6 is penetrated today, so, this trend line is voided here, we need tomorrow to decide if day low today could be another spot to generate a new trend line.
This is an ugly BeE daily bar, a failure at S4, and closed below S3, the only good part is thin volume, not match to the size of the move today, and chart pattern wise, the possible H&S bottom setup still valid, and S1 still holding.
AH IBM earning lifted IBM into green zone, this is the most expensive stock in DJI 30 now, overweight to the index, so, the positive move in IBM will give DJI a gap up in the morning, and lift the DJI back above S3, the line S6 is penetrated today, so, this trend line is voided here, we need tomorrow to decide if day low today could be another spot to generate a new trend line.
Monday, January 19, 2009
2009-01-19 Shanghai A share closed at 1994.11, +7.44
Looks like the dip I mentioned this morning completed intraday today... 5 positive days in a row... very bullish.
2009-01-19 US Market closed today
$SSEC Daily Chart: (Chinese A share)
Closed with +32, at 1987, intraday penetrated above 2000 again... another HH/HL day, long upper tail means resistance is nearby, first target/major resistance still near 2100 mark. Day 4 of bull move, watch for a dip day from here, but the dip will be shallow, I am not expecting to see any big/sharp dive during this Chinese New Year time...
Closed with +32, at 1987, intraday penetrated above 2000 again... another HH/HL day, long upper tail means resistance is nearby, first target/major resistance still near 2100 mark. Day 4 of bull move, watch for a dip day from here, but the dip will be shallow, I am not expecting to see any big/sharp dive during this Chinese New Year time...
Saturday, January 17, 2009
2009-01-17 Weekend Review
1. COMPQ Daily chart:
Trend line S4 held and confirmed, previous long bottom tail piercing pattern candle (Thursday) confirmed on Friday, bullish long bottom tail hammer, HH/HL, the chance to see a new BuC at S4 and K is increasing, Tuesday resistance at MBB near 1559, then S1.
2. DJI Daily Chart:
Friday was a Follow Through day to Thursday's reversal "morning star" type of long bottom tail doji. New bull trend line is defined at 7449 and 7995, but it needs a 3rd, maybe a 4th HL spot as confirmation, possible next BuC is S6 and K; Tuesday resistance at S4, S5 and MBB, C is still a critical resistance, and bull or bear is still unclear until C is turned out to be a ceiling or a floor...
7774, 7449 & 7995 could be a nice H&S bottom set up, neck line is line A, a close above 9088 with increased volume is need as a final confirmation.
For now... enjoy the move until line C first...
3. $SSEC Daily Chart: (Chinese A share)
R1 is cleared, R2 is the neckline for H&S bottom (1802, 1665 & 1815), penetrated last Friday, we could see a "Happy New Year" rally starting US time Sunday (Jan 18) night, Chinese mkt will have 2 trading days before US market resumes trading on Tuesday. The next resistance level is at the previous high near 2100. Shanghai A share is already in a BuC since the beginning of 2009, the bullish trend line D is already tested 3 times, C&D is a valid BuC.
Trend line S4 held and confirmed, previous long bottom tail piercing pattern candle (Thursday) confirmed on Friday, bullish long bottom tail hammer, HH/HL, the chance to see a new BuC at S4 and K is increasing, Tuesday resistance at MBB near 1559, then S1.
2. DJI Daily Chart:
Friday was a Follow Through day to Thursday's reversal "morning star" type of long bottom tail doji. New bull trend line is defined at 7449 and 7995, but it needs a 3rd, maybe a 4th HL spot as confirmation, possible next BuC is S6 and K; Tuesday resistance at S4, S5 and MBB, C is still a critical resistance, and bull or bear is still unclear until C is turned out to be a ceiling or a floor...
7774, 7449 & 7995 could be a nice H&S bottom set up, neck line is line A, a close above 9088 with increased volume is need as a final confirmation.
For now... enjoy the move until line C first...
3. $SSEC Daily Chart: (Chinese A share)
R1 is cleared, R2 is the neckline for H&S bottom (1802, 1665 & 1815), penetrated last Friday, we could see a "Happy New Year" rally starting US time Sunday (Jan 18) night, Chinese mkt will have 2 trading days before US market resumes trading on Tuesday. The next resistance level is at the previous high near 2100. Shanghai A share is already in a BuC since the beginning of 2009, the bullish trend line D is already tested 3 times, C&D is a valid BuC.
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