$VIX:$VXV: pink lines!

Looks like another DJI 100+ day is due tmr...

$VIX:$VXV

UUP 2009-11-16

UUP: borrow this chart from Cobra, more downside ahead.

$XII Monthly chart

We might still only at the beginning of 5-year long bull move based on following chart.

DJI Daily Chart 2009-11-12 After mkt closed

LL.LH red bar, possible a blending candle pattern here, tmr will be critical.

DJI 2009-11-12 Daily

A red day after new high is a continuation pattern on the way up... P is a resistance, B is the target... Day low today is an opportunity to "buy on dip", Day low today will serve as a low for next 4-7 trading days.

SPX Weekly chart

Old chart update: This chart was originally created on May 28th 2009. It is time for an update, SPX is walking through the "thin volume by price" zone between A&B here, next resistance at line B, This is the fibo .500 resistance near 1121.44, if this clears, then, T2 (near 1229) should be reached. RSI still below 80, no signal of overbought, so, long way to go...

DJI Daily

SPX is near May low today

If we use Gold not USD to calculate the SPX index, then, today's level is near May 2009.

UUP 2009-11-02

UUP: LL.LH red doji day, continuation pattern, bull flag or failure under line R is unclear. Falling wedge S&R unsolved here. Sell signal given on KD.

Vix daily Chart

Borrow this very same chart from here, again:

What a great repeating pattern at those red circles!!

VIX 60 min chart

The last candle today is a HH.HL red inverted hammer, this hints, we should see a morning weakness on indices, at least on DJI and SPX.

VIX over-extended today...

Borrow this chart from here:

VIX is outside of the ENV band... index is bottoming out here. $VIX: VXV reached to the highest level since March low.

SPX Daily Chart

Repeating pattern here, Aug and Sept dips were about the back test to 20 ema, both moved to new session high after the dip, and now, this is the 2nd dip dealing with 50 ema, this time is below 50 ema, very high chance to see that, day low today is a low for this correction, chart wise, it should touch line X and S2 for a bottom, but... due the GDP number out before market open tomorrow, and the last dip didn't touched line X, so, the chance to see a gap up open tomorrow is very high...

X & E (or E') forms an expanding triangle, and S2 was defined by to low spots from July.

Tomorrow could open near 50 ema at 1047, then close above 20 ema (1069).

Today might be a good set up to shake off weak hands, and lure the shorts to enter a short position near day low...

DJI Daily Chart

LL.LH green doji close, not a reversal day, but a reversal-ready candle, confirmation required tomorrow!

Pre-mkt thinking...

DJI: very high chance, today will be a bullish reversal day, possible 100+ day.... If this happens... then, next move is another new session high on index.

5:44 am

BAC...

Great opportunity to get in near $15 for a long haul... I mean... real long haul...

Cheap!

60% Bull Rally

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/60-rally-perspective

$TNX

$XEU: This is a solid HH.HL break out, not a peak out candle, so, expecting see more HH ahead!



$TNX: HH.HL bar... reversal candle, so, it might heading back to line A again, this means: bond could drop further down tomorrow, this is bullish to index.

VIX

This is a LL.LH red bar, bearish confirmation to the green doji from yesterday, follow thru pattern, Continuation. and this candle is NOT a bottom out pattern. next support at line C.

Weekend Review 10/12-10/16

COMPQ: Friday close is still below line A, even it is at a much higher position, this is still a rising wedge break down pattern. Friday candle is a LL.LH red hammer, filled the most recent gap, from bullish point view, this is a gap fill action and it could continue heading higher; from bearish point of view, this is a failure to hold above line A and put this rising wedge break down in work again, the action in past 10 days is still a back test to line A after rising wedge break down.

DJI: this is volume up BeE candle... possible hanging man with chance of South Point, it is still insider the rising wedge, a touch back to the wedge bottom is due from here after Friday's bearish looking candle. A very limited dip should at least touch 20 ema at 9775 again.

SPX: Still 5 gaps open on chart, rising wedge R/S still valid, Due to the touch at line S on Friday, so, next week it could still heading higher to touch line R again, unless it gaps down below line S on Monday.

$USD Weekly

There is an important development on $USD this week, it printed a LL.LH red bar, which is a bearish confirmation candle to the previous weekly candle, this means, we should expect to see another LL printed next week on $USD. The stronger support for USD is at line S1 near $74.

Thus, the current rally on major US indices could continue extend higher from here.

More research reports are posted here.

What important today 2009-10-13

TLT: Morning gap closed here... good for bears.

9:31 am

TLT has a morning gap open on chart, this chart needs to be close first...

7:36 am

Daily Review 2009-10-12

DJI: HH.HL peak green doji, continuation or reversal unclear, the chance to touch line B again is still open. Down side support at S3.

COMPQ: HH.HL red doji, continuation or reversal requires a confirmation candle from tmr.

SPX: 5th gap open today...

Details here.

2009-10-12 After Market opened

Indices are doing reversal here... watch out below.

11:44 am

Stock prices out there now, are way to much rich at current level.... not a good swing long entry, but a potential good swing short entry...

DT is something I normally don't do, and DT has nothing to do with market direction, you can get $.50-2.00 gains or losses easy from many names... every day... As long as you are disciplined on your stops after entry, long or short...

You can DT every day... without care about the economy or market direction at all. As long as your account stays with "Cash at market open and cash at market close" every day!

9:54 am

Today is a holiday... so, don't expecting to see a heavy trading day today... volume will be very light.

7:24 am

Indices Weekend Review 2009-10-05 to 2009-10-09: Talking about gaps

A very interest weekly action in past week, Here is what happened on major indices:

COMPQ Daily chart, opened 2 new gaps on chart in one week, this give COMPQ total 8 unfilled gaps since the run from 1265.52.

DJI bounced off at line S last Friday, and continued matching higher, and closed at the highest level since March low. Another extended rising wedge formed, B & S3. Friday close at no nearby resistance or support zone, Resistance at B, support at S3. DIA had 2 new gaps added to the chart this week!

SPX, this one also closed near atime high since March low, but failed to cross line S3, so, this is still the one doing a back test action after rising wedge E'/S3 broke down. So far, 3 gaps open since Jul low, total 4 gaps open since March low up.

$RUT now have 5 gaps open on daily chart, and the 2 was added in past week.

What are the gaps means to the future action on stocks and indices? Here are some readings:

Gartley's Gap Theory Explained

Gap Trading Strategies

E-mini and the Price Gap Theory

Gaps in Japanese Candlestick charts viewpoint

Gaps and Gap Analysis

Daily Review 2009-10-08

1. $GOLD Daily:

Short term resistance touched today, consolidation or correction is due in next 1-5 trading days.



2. $TNX Daily:

Back test to line C. Standard action after a big triangle broke down.


3. $USD Daily:

LL.LH red bar, 3rd touch at line A, falling wedge still valid.


4. COMPQ Daily:

HH.HL gap up black doji, evening star? 5th gap open today.

$TNX: bear flag break down!

Daily Review 2009-10-06

DJI Daily:


Only 1 chart for today, tomorrow is more important!

Bear needs a candle stay below line H tomorrow. if G'&H' is a valid expanding triangle down from here on, then, we will see many high volatility days ahead! Some very wide up and down swings could happen in this zone...

Daily Review 2009-10-05

2009-10-05 After mkt closed

1. SPX Daily:

Borrowed this chart from:

http://www.hutong9.com/viewthread.php?tid=62653&extra=page%3D1&page=14

Simliar but slightly trading set up this time, long SPY if closes above line 1 and and back test to line 1 completes; short SPY if closes below line 2, and back test to line 2 fails.

This set up is for short term trading only!





2. SPX, Another way of wave count:

2009-10-05 Intraday

Weekend Review 09/28-10/02

Fully weekend updates posted here。Brief market reviews as follow:

1. $USD Daily:

HH.HL bullish continuation doji.. touche line B...



2. $GOLD Daily:

LL LH, another failure at 1007.7.



3. DJI Daily:

LL.LH bottom red doji, bearish confirmation to the previous big red break down candle, continuation pattern, line G failed to serve as a valid support, so, it is will serve as resistance, next support at S. T is a stronger support.

4. VIX Daily:

Now, it stands above the clouds! This is the first time it closed above the clouds for 2 days in a row since Nov 2008!

（ZT)超长期熊市中的波浪周期 (图)

股市从2000年起已进入超长期熊市，从趋势型股市变为波动型股市，buy and hold好像不再好用了。

从上图中可以清楚的看到，股市的波动每浪的形态为16-17个月的正向波动+7个月的反向波动。而上个牛市从2002年10月开始，经过3浪而进入熊市。 本轮熊市从2007年11月开始，到今年2月止，经历了16个月的正向波动，开始反弹并持续7个月到9月底，完成第一次反向波动。从10月开始第二个 16-17个月的正向波动，到2011年的2-3月份出现第二个底，然后应再次反弹7个月，接着再次下跌16-17个月，于2013年上半年出现第3个 底，开始重新进入牛市周期。

作为中期而言，从10月份开始的下跌应持续5个月左右，在明年第一季度出现一个higher low，然后反弹到明年夏季，但明年的顶应不高于今年的顶。然后会继续下跌到2011年Q1，完成第二个16-17个月的正向波动。

Link:
http://web.wenxuecity.com/BBSView.php?SubID=finance&MsgID=1647002

Daily Review 2009-10-01

OK, Just like I was predicted last night, all 3 major indices completed another 3BC pattern today, so, this is a "3BC + 3BC" pattern, extremely bearish, and VIX, on the opposite side, has "3WS + 3WS" pattern, extremely bullish.

So, what could happen next?

First of all, we got a first DJI -200 red bar today, keep in mind, this kind of big red bar never comes alone! On the chart, it is still missing -300, -400 even -500 bars, this means, more big red bars are on the way... when? I am not the God, so, I don't know, and this is not important... the trend is more important than predicting what might happen the next day...

Tomorrow, the Unemployment rate will be out, and many trapped bulls are hoping this could be a life saving jacket to save them from sink deep into the water..., but what I want to point out is: You better don't count on that! Why?

That report, to you and to me, might be a news, but, to many "insiders" on the Wall St., that is already an "old news", if that report could do some positive impacts to the market, then, why no big money was buying those "really cheap stocks (if you compare thier price with a few days ago)" near market close today?? Not even any "short covering" action into close??

Hehe... think about it, and get your fingers crossed if you are fully loaded on the long side!

Good Luck!

1. DJI Daily:

LL.LH big red bar with volume steady. This is a very scary chart, line G was a minor support for today, but it only worked a few hours intraday, and finally DJI closed below G at mkt close today, so, next support is at line S near 9390 for tomorrow. But, this is not the worst part yet, the worst part is: below line S, there is virtually no support line until line A. Hoho... what if it closes below line S tomorrow? Then, what could happen next Monday?



2. COMPQ Daily:

LL.LH big red bar, volume steady, cut thru line S1, rising wedge S1/B broke down, next support at D, Gap 3 on chart is still open, so, if it does a downward gap in the morning, then, that will give us an IR on chart!


3. SPX Daily:

LL.LH, open at day high, close at day low big red bar, decisive break down of Rising Wedge E' & S3. Volume didn't spike, this means, no panic yet... green gap still open, so, a morning downward gap tmr will create an IR on chart. next support at S2.



4. VIX Daily:

HH.HL break out candle, 3WS+3WS pattern, 2nd time closed above the red pressure clouds... more confirmation is needed.



5. $USD Daily:

HH.HL green bar, closed above R2, next resistance is line B.



More details posted here.

Daily Review 2009-09-30

Last day of Sept trading, 3 indices all closed into red. All 3 monthly candles are green, both COMPQ and SPX have 7 monthly candles in green, last time on SPX was year 2006, 8 greens in -a-row, and NAz was year 2003, 7 greens in -a-row.

Detail after market closed review posted here.

1. DJI Daily:

LL.LH red long leg doji, with volume up, 2nd BC, new weekly low printed, so, far on daily chart it has "3BC + 1 extremely thin volume green bounce candle + 2 engulfing BC", If it adds one more red bar tomorrow, then, it will have 3BC+3BC pattern; for the first time since Jul low, DJI has more bearish looking candles than bullish looking candles on daily chart now.


2. SPX Daily:

LL.LH long bottom leg red hanging man, South Pointer waiting for a bearish confirmation, volume soared, penetrated S3 and 20 ema again... a close below S3, will give it a no support zone all the way to S2. Similar to DJI, 3BC+2BC already... waiting for another black crow tomorrow.

2009-09-30 Intraday DJI, SPX

Well, if today DJI and SPX close like this, then, the pattern is even worse than close near day low today, this is virtually wiped out a chance for a green bounce day tomorrow, and the intraday bouncing action actually sucked more cash out of the traders' pocket while they are doing so called " buy on dips"!

Hoho...

1. SPX: penetration here, LL.LH is the fact... hanging man..., South Pointer



2. DJI: LL LH hanging man, day low is new weekly low... no support until S.

Daily Review 2009-09-29

OK, Tomorrow will be the last trading day for Sept. How the market could closed for Sept, that is still a big question mark, DJI closed up 246 points for the month of Sept as of market closed today... And 246 points on DJI is really a one day job... this means... before the end of trading tomorrow, we still don't have answer on what a Monthly candle could be for this Sept: red or green.

Chart pattern and market action might hint, SPX could see 990 or lower very quick!

Stay on high vigilant.

Detail After market closed reviews posted here.

1. $SSEC Daily:

LL LH red doji, continuation pattern, trading range between 200 ema and LBB, this is still the resistance and support range for tonight.



2. DJI Daily:

HH.HL peak red bar, with volume up, so, green day with volume drop, red day with volume up? S2 is turning into a resistance, Day 4 closed under S2, so, rising wedge B&S2 break down is valid.
Again, no support until line S. MACd/KD/RSI continue heading lower.



3. SPX Daily;

HH.HL red shooting star looking candle with volume up, C is still the resistance, support at S3. Very fragile pattern, Rising wedge E' & S3 break down should send it down to S3 in days...

Daily Review 2009-09-28

Details: 2009-09-28 After Market Closed

1. $SSEC Daily:

LL.LH, bear flag break down big red bar... closed below 200 ema again, next support at line S.



2. DJI Daily:

HH.HL green bar bounce back to line S2 with low volume. For tomorrow: resistance line S2, support line S.



3. COMPQ Daily:

HH.HL, low volume green bounce day, resistance at S, support at B.


4. SPX Daily:

HH.HL, low volume green bounce day, resistance at C, support at S3.



5. TLT Daily:

HH.HL green bar with volume up, another new session high close, 2nd upward gap open here (continuation gap?) Line T and V double resistance break out. MACD buy signal given.



6. $USd Daily;

HH.HL green bar, resistance still at R2... continuation candle, no question about this...



7. $GOLD Daily:

Another LL.LH doji, continuation pattern, this could be a tiny bear flag... next support at S1.